Scientific consensus
From open-encyclopedia.com - the free encyclopedia.
Scientific consensus refers to the agreement, reached through a process of experimentation through the application of scientific method, theoretical reasoning, and peer review, within a particular field of science that a set of theories fit the current evidence best. The term is sometimes used to refer to a general consensus of agreement within the wider scientific community, as long as it exists.
Some modern theories for which there exists overwhelming consensus are relativity, quantum mechanics and evolution. There exist objectors to all these theories - consensus means overwhelming support, not total agreement. One mark of the consensus is that it is the theory that all challengers must measure up to. Note that the 'consensus' does not mean a final theory. Special relativity and quantum mechanics are unified in the framework of quantum field theory (QFT). There exists scientific consensus that QFT is a very useful description, but it is not a final theory. For example, it does not include gravity. General relativity and quantum mechanics may be unified by superstring theory but there is no consensus whether this candidate unifying theory is the correct description of reality.
Nor does consensus mean that the theory is fully understood: even though the predictions of quantum mechanics are precise, there remain controversies concerning the interpretation of its meaning.
Formerly, there was a consensus that Newtonian gravity was correct, in part because its predictions were extremely good. Over time, various objections to the theory mounted. One in particular was the precession of the perihelion of the orbit of Mercury. However, despite increasingly clear observations of an anomaly, and the failure of various explanations to explain it away, the failure to of the theory to match observations was not considered the death knell of the theory. Today, the scientific consensus is that the Newtonian gravity is just an very useful approximation of general relativity which itself may be superseded by a more complete theory sometime in the future.
Public policy advocates often appeal to scientific consensus to settle various issues such as safety and conservation, when that happens to suit their own argument. If the consensus runs against their argument, they will ignore or belittle it. The Bush administration has declined action on global warming on the grounds that a consensus is lacking. The Clinton administration argued that the global warming theory justified adopting the Kyoto Protocol, on the grounds that the science was "clear and compelling"
